When the Machine suggests, who decides?
In the age of AI, the danger is not that machines will be wrong, but that they will be convincingly sufficient. On judgment, responsibility, and why the oracle must not become the king.
Read the essay →Survivorship Bias
Why we draw the wrong lessons from success stories — from Abraham Wald's bullet-riddled bombers to self-help gurus and billionaire dropouts. A short primer on survivorship bias.
Read the essay →On the Speed of Progress
From Kittyhawk to the moon in 66 years, from BASIC on an Apple IIe to containerised machine learning in the cloud. A reflection on the dizzying pace of technological change — and what it means for anyone trying to make decisions in it.
Read the essay →What is Machine Learning
A plain-English demystification of machine learning — the four steps every model goes through, and the difference between supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning, with real-world examples.
Read the essay →Anchoring
The first in a series on cognitive biases. How a single, often arbitrary, piece of information quietly shapes our judgement — from Bargain Hunt to Kahneman and Tversky's rigged wheel of fortune.
Read the essay →Friendly Advice
The advice we give friends is often wiser than the advice we follow ourselves. Why distance sharpens judgement — and a simple trick for making better decisions under pressure.
Read the essay →Smart Meters
Can a smart meter really save 70 million trees? A story about an Amsterdam suburb, a meter in the hallway, and why what gets measured gets improved — but only because of the behaviour measurement triggers.
Read the essay →Struggling with Self-Control
Why do firm deadlines beat freedom? A personal reflection on procrastination, pre-commitment and Dan Ariely's classroom experiment — and a very human problem about getting out of a warm bed.
Read the essay →The Winner's Curse
Why does winning an auction so often feel like losing? A tale of two buyers on Homes Under the Hammer, the anchor of a guide price, and the predictably irrational regret that follows a bargain.
Read the essay →The 3 Laws of Human Behaviour
Newton's three laws of motion, reimagined for human behaviour. Friction and fuel, Kurt Lewin's B = f(P, E), and why well-intentioned actions so often produce unintended consequences.
Read the essay →The Sunk Cost Fallacy in Everyday Decision-Making
Why we throw good money after bad — and how to recognise when past investments are clouding your judgement today. A practical look at the sunk cost fallacy and the one question that escapes it.
Read the essay →Expected Value: The Single Most Useful Idea in Rationality
A clear-eyed look at expected value reasoning and why most people consistently ignore it — to their detriment. Probability times magnitude, the biases that blind us to it, and the long game.
Read the essay →Bayesian Thinking: Updating Your Beliefs with Evidence
How the 18th-century theorem at the heart of probability theory can transform the quality of your everyday reasoning — priors, posteriors, and the antidote to confirmation bias.
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